| Miêu tả |
Despite the long tradition in economics of trade being seen as net welfare-improving, criticisms
of trade and hence of trade liberalization policies have been persistent, and perhaps growing over
time, especially as far as LDCs are concerned. Modern empirical research has shown some of
these concerns to have been overblown and that the import substitution (ISI) policies employed
by most LDCs seemed to be leading to a dead end. As a result, many LDCs adopted trade and
other reforms beginning in the mid-1980s. By the early 1990s, the sentiment for trade
liberalization and other reforms was so widespread and dominant that a “Washington
Consensus” was declared. Despite high expectations, even the more recent experience with trade
liberalization has had very mixed effects.
The paper is organized as follows: Section 1 identifies types of trade liberalization
policies and provides examples of each. Section 2 summarizes the experience. This turns out to
have been much more mixed than was expected both on the basis of theory and that early
experience of the East Asian miracle. Trade liberalization goes through three stages. Six different
obstacles to trade liberalization are identified: (1) obstacles to market access by new and small
firms (SMEs), (2) inability of the government to commit credibly to program creation and
implementation, (3) obstacles created by the resistance of the owners of asset-specific capital,
(4) inadequate or inappropriate legal, regulatory and juridical institutions, (5) fears that the
government lacks the political, financial, or technical will or ability to limit the likely negative
externalities arising from trade liberalization, and (6) transitional rigidities or lack of cooperation
between different groups that act as a barrier to efficient responses by the private sector. Some of
these obstacles are relevant in the pre-reform stage, others in the reform implementation stage
and still others in the post reform period. In the latter case, the benefits may be less than expected
or “promised” and may be accompanied by unwanted and unexpected costs. These categories
and the lessons of experience are drawn upon in subsequent presentations at the Forum.
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