ABBREVIATIONS
SUMMARY
I. The world fertilizer market
1.1 An unstable recovery of the world economy
1.2 The world agricultural market: unexpected price volatility
1.3 The world fertilizer market
1.3.1 Increased supply but excessive capacity
1.3.2 A good growth in South Asia and emerging markets
1.3.3 Stable upward trend in price
 

II. The domestic fertilizer market
2.1 Many fluctuations in macro-economics
2.2 Domestic agricultural market: Upward price and favorable weather
2.3 Stable fertilizer consumption
2.4 Stable domestic supply, increased import
2.4.1 Increased production capacity but unchanged output
2.4.2 A sharp rise in import volume and value
2.4.3 Unstable Urea and NPK import volume and downward trend in DAP import
2.4.4 China-the main importer
 

III. Domestic fertilizer price developments
3.1 Higher retail price than forecast
3.2 A sharp rise of import price
3.3 Causes of pricehike
IV. Outlook for Vietnam’s fertilizer market in 2012
4.1 Outlook for fertilizer supply-demand in Vietnam
4.2 Outlook for Vietnam’s fertilizer sector in 2012
 

APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX 2
ARIMA model
Forecast result for Urea price
Forecast result for DAP price

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: FOOD PRICE INDEX through the crisis
Figure 2: Price volatility for several main food varieties
Figure 3: Production of several the world fertilizer varieties
Figure 4: Demand for the world fertilizer in 2011
Figure 5: Production of several main fertilizer varieties in the world
Figure 6: USD/VNĐ exchange rate volatility in 2011
Figure 7:Gasoline price volatility in 2010-2011
Figure 8: Domestic rice price volatility
Figure 9: Vietnam’s coffee price by month, years 2008-2011
Figure 10: Fertilizer demand in Vietnam by varieties, years 2007-2011
Figure 11: Fertilizer consumption indicator by month, years 2010-2011
Figure 12: Production of several main fertilizer varieties in Vietnam
Figure 13: Fertilizer volume and value in 2011 against previous years
Figure 14: Fertilizer import by month in 2011
Figure 15: Fertilizer import by month in the years 2010-2011 and export tariff of China
Figure 16: Fertilizer import volume, years 2009-2011
Figure 17: Vietnam’s fertilizer import structure by market in the first 11 months of 2011
Figure 18: Price volatility for several fertilizer varieties
Figure 19: Urea price in several main markets in 2010
Figure 20: DAP price in several markets in 2011
Figure 21: Import prices for several main fertilizer varieties
Figure 22: Comparing between retail Urea price, farm gate urea price and average import urea price
Figure 23: Fertilizer supply-demand balance in 2011
Figure 24: Forecast for urea price in Vietnam in 2012
Figure 25: Outlook for domestic urea price in 2012
Table 1: Outlook for the world fertilizer price in 2012
Table 2: Outlook for the world fertilizer supply in 2012
Table 3: The world price developments for several fertilizer varieties in 2011
Table 4: Food and cereal price indicator growth in 2011
Table 5: Fertilizer price indicator growth in 2011
Table 6: Forecast for domestic fertilizer demand by varieties
Table 7: Several projects on fertilizer capacity enhancement
Table 8: Fertilizer import in 2011 by varieties
Table 9: Fertilizer import in 2011 by market
Table 10: Dam Phu My fertilizer in several markets
Table 11: DAP fertilizer price in several markets

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Outlook for the world fertilizer price in 2012
Table 2: Outlook for the world fertilizer supply in 2012
Table 3: The world price developments for several fertilizer varieties in 2011
Table 4: Food and cereal price indicator growth in 2011
Table 5: Fertilizer price indicator growth in 2011
Table 6: Forecast for domestic fertilizer demand by varieties
Table 7: Several projects on fertilizer capacity enhancement
Table 8: Fertilizer import in 2011 by varieties
Table 9: Fertilizer import in 2011 by market
Table 10: Dam Phu My fertilizer in several markets
Table 11: DAP fertilizer price in several markets