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Rubber export turnover down, but hoped to recover later this year
06 | 07 | 2007
Rubber export turnover decreased in the first months of the year due to the world’s price decreases. However, Vietnamese exporters still hope to see better export prices the rest of the year
According to the Trade Research Institute, the world’s natural rubber output will increase by 3% in 2007 and 4.5% in 2008. Thailand’s output is expected to increase by 2.1-3.8%, Indonesia 0.9% and Malaysia 4%. China’s consumption level has been forecast to increase by 9% in 2007 and 8% in 2008. The figures are 4.7% and 2.2% for the US and EU, respectively.

Vietnam exported $254mil worth of rubber in the first three months of the year, representing a 5.6% decrease in turnover and 9.8% in quantity compared to the same period of 2006.

The decrease in export turnover has been attributed to the continued price falls in the Asian market in the last three months despite the short supplies as Thailand, the biggest rubber exporter, and Indonesia, the second, tried to limit their exports.

The world’s price has been decreasing due to the revaluation of the Japanese yen and the continued price decreases of blue chips. These factors have been worrying investors, who have decided to sell rubber, bringing rubber prices down.

Meanwhile, rubber exports to China, which consumes 59.2% of Vietnam’s rubber exports, were very low, at 58,165 tonnes, worth $101.449mil, down by 10.67% in quantity compared to the same period last year; moreover, prices were 9.5% lower.

In fact, export prices saw considerable increases in the first two months of the year. For example, the average export price to China in February rose by $129/tonne over January, and 6.4% over February 2006. The export price to Korea also rose by $245/tonne over January.

However, the price increases stopped in March and began falling. It is estimated that the price may fall further to $1,750-2,100 due to the price decreases in the Asian market.

However, Vietnamese rubber exporters hope that their business performances will be better in the last months of the year, especially when export markets have been expanded, and exporters will not have to rely on only a few markets.

Vietnam-sourced rubber has been exported to six markets, including three new markets. China remains the biggest export market, consuming 59.2% of Vietnam’s exports, followed by Korea and Germany. Additionally, Taiwan has become an export market with potential for Vietnam.

(Source: Thuong mai)

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