Brazil's main cocoa state Bahia is likely to turn out a main crop at least 10 percent larger than forecast only weeks ago at the outset of the harvest, as arrivals surge, the Bahia Cocoa Association said.

The association raised its forecast for October to March output by 100,000 60-kg bags, or 6,000 metric tonnes, to 1.1 million  bags or more. Last month's estimate was for 1 million bags.

The fast pace of deliveries this year is an encouraging sign in the world's No. 6 cocoa producer, which fell from the No. 2 spot decades ago due to fungal Witch's Broom and whose cocoa farming has languished ever since.

Cumulative arrivals since the start of Brazil's May-April crop year overtook last year's in the last week, and were 1.5 percent higher at 2.52 million 60-kg bags by Nov. 7 compared to 2.48 million bags a year ago.

Arrivals of cocoa from Bahia's farms totaled 80,923 60-kg bags, more than double the 33,114 bags delivered in the same week last year, but were down from last week's 94,452 bags, the largest amount the state turned out in any week for 16 years.

"Even not reaching last week's peak, arrivals from Bahia maintained a very strong pace, far above the performance of recent years, and show signs of steadiness in the near future," cocoa analyst Thomas Hartmann said in a weekly bulletin.
Deliveries from other states shot up during the week to 16,163 bags versus 10,863 bags last week, and were more than double last year's 6,171 bags.

"Apart from the good weather that has favored this year's production, high prices obtained by farmers since 2008 have led to the increased usage of fertilizers and pesticides that is now showing its beneficial results," Hartmann said.

Separately, the association gave its final total for the 2009/10 (Oct/Sept) international crop year, which turned out 2.69 million 60-kg bags (161,210 tonnes), 2.06 million bags (123,859 tonnes) of which came from Bahia.

Farm gate prices in Bahia rose to 78-80 reais ($45.53-$46.73) per arroba (15 kg) on Tuesday, compared with 75-77.50 reais last week.

The country's domestic production data serve as an indicator of how much extra cocoa Brazil is likely to import to top off its own supply, most of which is consumed locally.