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Vietnam rice industry in 2010 and outlook for 2011
13 | 09 | 2011
Vietnam rice industry in 2010 and outlook for 2011 published by Agroinfo is intended to provide comprehensive and up-to-date analyses of factors affecting the domestic and global rice markets in 2010 and prospects for market trends in 2011. • Rice production in Vietnam and the world • Rice price fluctuation in Vietnam and the world • World rice trade in 2010 • Rice export of Vietnam in 2010 • Rice supply-demand balance of Vietnam in 2010 • Outlook for 2011: Rice price, supply and potential markets for rice export


World market in 2010

· The world's rice cultivation area for crop year 2009/10 was about 156.1 million hectares, down 1.7 million hectares compared with 2008/09. Total world rice production for 2009/10 reached 660.2 million tons, down 10.3 million tons from 2008/09. World demand for rice was about 435.2 million tons, which was similar to 2008/09. Rice exports reached 29.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons (2.40%) compared with 2008/09. Except for the crop year 2006/07, this has been the highest level of rice exports of the world in recent years. World’s ending rice stocks for 2009/10 was about 95.3 million tons, up 3.6 million tons (3.93%) over 2008/09.

· According to AGROINFO, for 2009/10 crop year, Thailand was the largest rice exporter in the world, with approximately 8.5 million tons, followed by Vietnam with 6.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the Philippines remained the biggest importer of rice in the world, with approximately 2.6 million tons, of which imports from Vietnam accounted for 75%.

· In the first six months of 2010, world rice price decreased compared to 2009. However, in the last 6 months, it saw a recovery and increased again.

Vietnam’s market in 2010

· In 2010, rice planted area in Vietnam was about 7513.7 thousand ha, increasing by 76.5 thousand ha (1.03%) compared to 2009. In 2010, Vietnam's rice output has reached the highest level ever, reaching 39,988.9 thousand tons, an increase of 1093.73 thousand tons (2.81%) compared to 2009.

· In 2010, rice export volume of Vietnam reached 6.603 million tons with a turnover of US$2,840 million, up 13.52% in volume and 9.44% in value over the same period in 2009. Vietnam's rice exports for six mid-months occurred most busily with the high trade volume and value. Particularly in the quarter 2/2010, Vietnam's rice exports reached 2.044 million tons with a turnover of US$877 million, accounting for 31% in the volume and turnover in 2010.

· In 2010, Vietnam mainly exported rice to Asia with volume of 3.88 million tons, accounting for 58.72% exported rice. Of which, 4 Southeast Asian markets such as Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia made up 43.5% in total volume and 51.4% in total value of Vietnamese rice export in the first 11 months of 2010.

· Aftter downward trend in Q1 and Q2, up to Q3 and Q4, Vietnam's rice exports were prosper, the domestic and export rice prices saw signs of recovery and returned to growth.

Market outlook for 2011

· In 2011, world rice production is estimated at 452.4 million tons, up 2.54% compared to 2010. World rice ending stocks are expected to be about 95.44 million tons, down 0.83% over the same period in 2010. Total world rice imports are expected to reach 28.3 million tons, down 0.6% compared to 2010.

· In 2011, Vietnam's rice exports are forecast to be 5.8 million tons with a turnover of about US$2.9 to 3.1 billion, equivalent to rice exports in 2010.

· According to AGROINFO, in 2011, domestic and export prices will increase in Q1 and Q4, but they tend to fall down in the second quarter and third quarter.

· According to forecasts of AGROINFO, the traditional markets in Asia, especially countries in Southeast Asia including the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and other regions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan remain the potential markets for Vietnam's rice exports.

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