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FOREWORD
Editor team
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
ABBREVATIONS
SUMMARY
I. VIETNAM AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 2011
1. World economy 2011
2. Vietnam’s economy in 2011
2.1. Macro-economic growth
2.1.1. GDP – lower growth than 2010
2.1.2. Export-import value
2.1.3. Consumption
2.2. Investment
2.3. Exchange rate
2.4. Inflation
2.5. Stock exchange
2.6. Gold market
1. Growth and structure transfer
1.1. Fairly good GDP growth
1.2. High agro-commodity price, economic structure of agro-forestry-fishery sector switching to agriculture sector
2. Investment
2.1. Investment from state budget
2.2. FDI
2.3. Investment from ODA
3. Production
3.1. Agriculture
3.2. Forestry
3.3. Fishery
3.4. Salt industry
4. Trade
4.1. Trade in agriculture-forestry-fishery in 2012
4.2. Commodities in terms of export value of over US$1 billion in 2011
4.3. Commodities with import value of more than US$1 billion in 2011
4.4. Top 10 agro-commodities in terms of export value growth in 2011
4.5. Top 10 commodities in terms of import value growth in 2011
5. Commodities
5.1. Rice
5.1.1. Production
5.1.2. Trade
5.1.2.1. Export volume and value
5.1.2.2. Price
5.1.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s rice
5.1.2.4. Policy
5.2.1. Production
5.2.2. Trade
5.2.2.1. Export volume and value
5.2.2.2. Price
5.2.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s coffee
5.3. Rubber
5.3.1. Production
5.3.2. Trade
5.3.2.1. Export volume and value
5.3.2.2. Price
5.3.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s rubber
5.3.2.4. Policy
5.4. Cashew
5.4.1. Production
5.4.2. Trade
5.4.2.1. Export volume and value
5.4.2.2. Price
5.4.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s cashew export
5.5. Pepper
5.5.1. Production
5.5.2. Trade
5.5.2.1. Export volume and value
5.5.2.2. Price
5.5.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s pepper export
5.6. Tea
5.6.1. Production
5.6.2. Trade
5.6.2.1. Export volume and value
5.6.2.2. Price
5.6.2.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s tea export
5.7. Feed and feed ingredients
5.7.1. Production
5.7.2. Trade
5.7.2.1. Export value
5.7.2.2. Price
5.7.2.4. Policy
5.8. Fertilzer
5.8.1. Production
5.8.2. Trade
5.8.2.1. Import value
5.8.2.2. Price
5.8.2.3. Fertilizer exporters to Vietnam
5.9. Vegetables and fruits
5.9.1. Production
5.9.2. Trade
5.9.2.1. Export value
5.9.2.2. Market
5.10. Sugarcane
5.10.1. Production
5.10.2.1. Value
5.10.2.2. Price
5.10.2.3. Market
5.10.2.4. Policy
5.11. Livestock
5.11.1. Production
5.11.2. Trade
5.11.2.1. Value
5.11.2.2. Price
5.11.2.3. Market
5.12. Fishery
5.12.1. Production
5.12.2. Fishery trade
5.12.3. Price
5.12.3. Destinations for Vietnam’s fishery
5.13. Timber and timber products
5.13.1. Trade
5.13.2. Market
5.14. Milk and milk products
5.14.1. Production
5.14.2. Trade
5.14.3. Market
5.14.4. Price
5.15. Fats and oils
5.15.1. Trade
5.15.2. Market
III. SOME ISSUES ON VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURE DEVELOPEMENT IN 2011
1. Benefits from Vietnamese dong devaluation for Vietnam’s exported agro-products
2. Favorable agro-product export thanks to warning message “global food crisis risks”
3. Increased export agro-product price contributing to improving poor household percentage
4. Downward agricultural added value in 2000-2011
5. Input subsidies-higher fertilizer price
6. Fishery industry’s growth in a miserably hard position
6.1. Shortage and surplus of pangasius
6.2. Enrofloxacin inspection strengthening from Japan
6.3. Heavy damages from diseases for shrimp and oyster in the Mekong river delta
7. Increasing “problems” in agro-products
8. Drought and salt water infusion on a large scale in the Mekong River delta
9. Adverse impacts of disease epidemics and weather on agriculture production
9.1. Damages from disaster
9.2. Effects of diseases
IV. VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012
1. Vietnam’s agricultural development in 2012
1.1. World situation
1.1.1. World economy
1.1.2. World agriculture
1.2. Domestic situation
1.2.1. Vietnam’s economy
1.2.2. Vietnam’s agricultural development in 2012
2. Outlook for Vietnam’s agricultural development in 2012
2.1. Growth
2.2. Outlook for some agro-products
2.2.1 Rice
2.2.2. Coffee
2.2.3. Rubber
2.2.4. Cashew
2.2.5. Pepper
2.2.6. Fishery
V. APPENDIX
1. The economy of the world, region and Vietnam’s some main economic partners
2. Vietnam’s economy in 2011
3. Agricultural production
4. Trade of agriculture, forestry and fishery in 2011
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: World marco-economic indicators, years 2010- 2011
Table 2: GDP growth of agro-forestry-fishery
Table 3: Agricultural production value in 2011 in constant 1994 values
Table 4: FDI in 2010 by economic sector
Table 5: FDI structure in agro-forestry-fishery by investment area up to 2009
Table 6: 10 large foreign investors in agriculture, forestry and fishery (up to Jul 2008)
Table 7: ODA in agricultural sector, years 2009-2011
Table 8: Agro-products with exports of more than US$1 billion, years 2010-2011
Table 9: Commodites in terms of import value of more than US$1 billion in
Table 10: Top 10 commodities in terms of export value growth in 2011
Table 11: Top 10 commodities in terms of import growth in
Table 12: Rice area, yield and production in 2010-2011
Table 13: Rice export business policy in
Table 14: Meat production in 2010-2011
Table 15: The highest salinity in Apr 2011 against average level in the same period of 2002-2010 and 2010 in the Mekong river delta (Unit: g/l)
Table 16: Damages due to disasters in 2011
Table 17: Damages from diseases in 2011
Table 18: Forecast on the world and region economy in 2012
Table 19: Vietnam government and international organizations’ forecasts on economic growth of Vietnam in 2011-2012 (%)
Table 20: Some agricultural growth targets in 2012
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDP growth of world and regions, years 2001-2011 (%)
Figure 2: GDP structure by economic sector, years 2010 - 2011 (%)
Figure 3: Total export-import value by economic sector, years 2010-2011 (US$ billion)
Figure 4: 14 products with export value of more than US$2 billion in (US$ billion)
Figure 5: 11 products in terms of import value of more than US$2 billion in 2011 (US$ billion)
Figure 6: Consumption structure by economic sector, years 2010-2011 (Real price, %)
Figure 7: Social investment, years 2008-2011 (current price, VND billion, %)
Figure 8: FDI Commitment and disbursement, years 2008-2011 (US$ million)
Figure 9: VND/US$ exchange rate on the inter-banking market
Figure 10: Official and unoffical VND/US$ exchange rate, years 2010-2011
Figure 11: Monthly CPI in 2011
Figure 12: VN-Index and HNX-Index in the first 9 months of 2011
Figure 13: Gold price volatility in first 10 months of 2011
Figure 14: Crop production structure throughout years, years 2006-2010(%)
Figure 15: GDP structure of agro-fiorestry-fishery sector, years 2008-2011 (current price, %)
Figure 16: Investment structure from State budget by sector, years 2007-2010 (%)
Figure 17: Logged forest area and timber prodcution throughout years (2008-2011)
Figure 18: Fishery production structure, years 2008-2011 (%)
Figure 19: Agro-forestry-fishery export structure, years 2008-2011 (%)
Figure 20: Agro-forestry-fishery ex-import value share, years 2009-2011 (%)
Figure 21: Vietnam’s rice area and output, years 2003-2012
Figure 22: Vietnam’s export rice price by month, years 2010 - 2011
Figure 23: Brown rice price in An Giang and Dong Thap, years 2010-2011
Figure 24: Coffee area, yield and output in 2010-2011
Figure 25: Vietnam’s coffee export volume and value in 2006-2011
Figure 26: Robusta coffee price in London (UK) and Vietnam in 2011 (US$/ton)
Figure 27: Rubber area, yield and output in 2010-2011
Figure 28: RSS3 rubber price volatility in 2011 (US$/ton)
Figure 29: Cashew area, yield and production in 2010-2011
Figure 30: Cashew export volume and value in 2011
Figure 31: Average cashew export price in2011 (US$/ton)
Figure 32: Pepper area, yield and output in 2010-2011
Figure 33: Monthly pepper export volume and value in 2011
Figure 34: Black pepper retail price growth in HCMC in 2010-2011 (Price in Jan = 100)
Figure 35: Black and white pepper price in 2011 (US$/ton)
Figure 36: Fresh tea area, yield and output in 2010-2011
Figure 37: Fresh tea price in Lam Dong in 2011 (VND/kg)
Figure 38: Domestically-produced fertilizer production in 2010-2011
Figure 39: Vietnam’s fertilizer demand in 2007-2011
Figure 40: Fertilizer import value in 2008-2011
Figure 41: Urea price in some key markets in 2009-2011
Figure 42: Vietnam and Thailand’s sugar price in 2009-2011
Figure 43: Structure of meat varieties in 2010-2011 (%)
Figure 44: Meat retail price growth in HCMC and Hanoi in 2011 (%)
Figure 45: Vietnam’s fishery trade in 2001-2011 (US$ million)
Figure 46: White flesh tra fish and black tiger shrimp price
Figure 47: Destinations for Vietnam’s fishery export in 2011 (%)
Figure 48: Changes in currency value of regional countries compared to US dollar in 2011 (Jan 2011 = 100)
Figure 49: GDP and agricultural production value in 2010 - 2011
Figure 50: DPM Urea and imported Urea price in 2009-2011
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