I. VIETNAM AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN 2008

1. World economy in 2008

2. Vietnam’s economy in 2008

2.1. Macroeconomic growth

2.1.1. GDP

2.1.2. Import-export value

2.1.3. Consumption

2.2. Investment

2.3. Exchange rate

2.4. Integration

2.5. . Inflation

2.6. Stock market

II. OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN 2008

1. Growth and structure transfer

1.1. GDP growth of fishery sector only reached 42% compared to the scheme

1.2. Because agricultural products have good prices in international market, economic structure transfer of agriculture, forestry and fishery is upside down

2. Investment

2.1. State budget investment

2.2. Foreign direct investment

2.2.1. Overview of FDI in agriculture, forestry and fishery sector

2.2.2. . FDI structure by sectors

2.2.3. FDI structure by regions

2.2.4. FDI structure by investors

2.3. Investment from ODA capital

3. Production

3.1. Agriculture

3.2. . Forestry

3.3. Fishery

3.4. Salt production

4. Trade

4.1. Trade surplus of agriculture, forestry and fishery products in 2008

4.2. Export of agricultural, forest and aquatic products was likely to sharply decrease in late months of 2008

4.3. Top of five goods having the largest export value of agriculture, forestry and fishery in 2008

4.4. Top of 5 goods having the largest import value in 2008

4.5. Top of 5 goods having the largest export value growth of agricultural, forest and aquatic products in 2008

4.6. Top of 5 goods having the largest import value growth in 2008

5. Commodity

5.1. Rice

5.1.1. Production

5.1.2. Trade

5.1.2.1. Volume and export value

5.1.2.2. Price

5.1.2.3. Export market

5.1.2.4. Policy

5.2. Coffee

5.2.1. Production

5.2.2. Trade

5.2.2.1. Volume and export value

5.2.2.2. Price

5.2.2.3. Export market

5.3. Rubber

5.3.1. Production

5.3.2. Trade

5.3.2.1.Export volume and value

5.3.2.2. Price

5.3.2.3. Export market

5.4. Cashew nut

5.4.1. Production

5.4.2. Trade

5.4.2.1. Export voume and value

5.4.2.2. Price

5.4.2.3. Export market

5.4.2.4. Policy

5.5. Pepper

5.5.1. Production

5.5.2. Trade

5.5.2.1. Export volume and value

5.5.2.2. Prices

5.5.2.3. Import markets

5.6. Tea

5.6.1. Production

5.6.2. Trade

5.6.2.1. Export value and volume

5.6.2.2. Prices

5.6.2.3. Import markets

5.7. Animal feed and feed ingredients

5.7.1. Production

5.7.2. Trade

5.7.2.1. Import value

5.7.2.2. Prices

5.7.2.3. Markets

5.7.2.4. Policies

5.8. Fertilizers

5.8.1. Production

5.8.2. Trade

5.8.2.1. Import value

5.8.2.2. Prices

5.8.2.3. Markets

5.8.2.4. Policies

5.9. Vegetables and fruits

5.9.1. Production

5.9.2. Trade

5.9.2.1. Export value

5.9.2.2. Markets

5.10. Sugar

5.10.1. Production

5.10.2. Trade

5.10.2.1. Value

5.10.2.2. Prices

5.10.2.3. Market

5.11. Livestock industry

5.11.1. Production

5.11.2. Trade

5.11.2.1. Value

5.11.2.2. Prices

5.11.2.3. Markets

5.11.2.4. Policies

5.12. Fish and fishery products

5.12.1. Export volume and value

5.12.2.Prices

5.12.3. Import markets

5.13. Timber and wood products

5.13.1. Trade

5.13.2. Prices

5.13.3. Markets

5.14. Milk and dairy products.

5.14.1. Trade

5.14.2. Markets

5.14.3. Prices

5.14.4. Policies

5.15. Fats and oils

5.15.1. Trade

5.15.2. Markets

III. SEVERAL OUTSTANDING ISSUES IN VIETNAM AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN 2008

1. Sharply rising input prices gave a boost to the price of some commodity sectors which are much dependent on imported marterials (fertilizers, animal feed and ingredients)

2. Financial crisis and impacts on export prices of Vietnam agricultural products

3. Epidemic diseases and the bad weather hurt the supply-demand for agricultural products, and food

3.1. Impacts of natural disasters

3.2. Impacts of epidemic diseases

4. Quality and the quality management for agricultural materials, and inputs

4.1. Fertilizers

4.2. Pesticide and Insecticide

4.3. Animal feed

5. Meat sector performance is far beyond WTO commitments and has influence on domestic livestock industry

IV. VIETNAM AGRICULTURE’S PROSPECTS FOR 2009

1. Growth

1.1. General economic context

1.1.1. World economy

1.1.2. Vietnam economy

1.2. Agriculture

2. Markets for commodity sectors

2.1. Rice

2.2. Coffee

2.3. Rubber

2.4. Cashew nuts

2.5. Maize

V. APPENDICE

1. World and regional economies, and some principal economic partners of Vietnam

2. 2008 macroeconomy

3. Agricultural production

4. Trade in agro-forestry-fishery products in 2008

5. Documents on agricultural policies promulgated in 2008

6. Governmental plan for 2009 socio-economic development

7. Addresses of some useful agricultural websites

LIST OF TABLES IN THE REPORT

Table 1: World’s macroeconomic indicators in 2007-2008 period

Table 2: Region’s GDP growth rate in 2006-2008 period (%)

Table 3: GDP growth of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector

Figure 4: Production value of agricultural sector in 2008 under constant 1994 price

Table 5: 10 largest foreign investors into the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery (up to July 2008)

Table 6: Five goods having the largest export value, years 2007-2008 (Unit: Volume (1000 tons); Value (million USD))

Table 7: Five goods having the largest export value, years 2007-2008 (Unit: Volume (1000 tons); Value (million USD))

Table 8: Five goods having the largest export value growth in 2008 (Unit: Volume (1000 tons); Value (million USD))

Table 9: Five goods having the largest import value growth in 2008 (Unit: Volume (1000 tons); Value (million USD))

Table 10: Rice area, production and yield in 2007-2008

Table 11: Meat production under sales in 2007 and 2008

Table 12: Changes in the exchange rate of US currency compared to other currencies

Table 13: Damage caused by natural disasters, epidemic diseases in 2008

Table 14: Tax duties levied on meat products

Table 15: Estimates for world and regional economies in 2009

Table 16: Vietnam Government and organisations’ forecasts of Vietnam’s economic growth in 2008 và 2009 (%)

Table 17: GDP growth scenarios for agriculture sector in 2009 (%- GDP based on comparative prices of 1994)

Table 18: Estimated production values in agro-forestry-fisheries sector in 2009 (%)

LIST OF FIGURES IN THE REPORT

Figure 1: World and region’s GDP growth rates in 2000-2008 period (%)

Figure 2: Ratios of region’s GDP in 2007-2008 period (%)

Figure 3: Total import-export values in 2007-2008 period by regions (Billion USD)

Figure 4: Consumption structure of sectors, years 2007-2008 (actual price, %)

Figure 5: Investment structure by regions in 2005-2008 period, actual price (%)

Figure 6: Foreign exchange rate of VND/USD in the interbank market

Figure 7: CPI in the period of 2007-2008 (Baseline = December, 2006)

Figure 8: Changes of Vn-Index and AGF (An Giang Fishery Company) in 2008 (%)

Figure 9: GDP structure of Agriculture, forestry and fishery, years 2005-2008 (actual price, %)

Figure 11: FDI structure of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector (years 1988 - 2007)

Figure 12: ODA investment in economic setors, years 2006-2010

Figure 13: Structure of fishery production in the period of 2006-2008 (%)

Figure 14: Salt production and yield of provinces having high production in 2008

Figure 15: Export structure of agriculture, forest and aquatic products, years 2007-2008 (%)

Figure 16: Ratio of export-import value of agricultural, forest and aquatic products out of total export-import value of goods (%)

Figure 17: Monthly volume and export value of main agricultural, forest and aquatic products in 2008 (January 2008 = 100)

Figure 18: Prices for Vietnam and Thailand’s 10% broken rice, years 2007-2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 19: Ordinary rice price in several markets, years 2007-2008 ( VND/kg)

Figure 20: Production and growth rate of several perennial industrial trees in 2007-2008 period

Figure 21: Price of monthly average export coffee in 2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 22: Weekly Robusta coffee price in London market (England) and Vietnam in 2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 23: Monthly export price of RSS3 rubber in 2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 24: Monthly price of export RSS3 rubber in Thailand by 2008 (Bath/kg)

Figure 25: Monthly average price of export cashew nut in 2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 26: Monthly prices of white pepper, not crushed for export in 2008 (USD/ton)

Figure 27: Monthly prices of fresh green tea buds in Lam Dong in 2007-2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 28: Production and the growth rate in production of feed crops

Figure 29: Monthly prices of mixed feed for pigs in 2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 30: Monthly domestic prices of whole-grain corn in 2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 31: Monthly prices of DAP fertilizer in Dong Nai and Tien Giang in 2007-2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 32: Prices of domestic sugar RE in the markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in 2007-2008 (December 2007=100)

Figure 33: The structure of meat of all kinds in 2006-2008 (%)

Figure 34: Growth rate in price changes for meat of all kinds in 2007-2008 (Price of the fourth quarter in 2007=100)

Figure 35: Growth rate in price changes for NPK “dau trau” and domestic DAP and imported potassium fertilizer in 2008 (Januart 2008=100)

Figure 36: Price changes of animal feed in correlation to feed ingredients

Figure 37: Impacts of diseases on the changing of consumer habits

LIST OF BOXES IN THE REPORT

Box 1: PCI case and ODA commitment of Japan for Vietnam

Box 2: Feed ingredient processing enterprises are thirsty for USD

Box 3: Cashew-exporting Vietnamese enterprises face a big lawsuit

Box 4: Milk cow raisers let breeding facilities idle or look to other jobs as a result of low purchasing price for milk

Box 5: Bottlenecks in quality management of agricultural materials

Box 6: Overflow of low-quality fertilizers in markets