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Report on meat and food consumption: Forecast on demand for 2009 lunar new year
13 | 01 | 2009
The first 10 months of 2008 was evaluated to be a difficult and disadvantageous period for Vietnam livestock. The cold spell at the beginning of the year in Northern provinces caused a reduction in cattle populations. Moreover, diseases and a high increase in feed price (40-60%) made livestock be at a loss. Thus, many breeders stopped raising livestock and large farms were narrowed in size. To stabilize supplies, Government actively reduced meat export tariff to levels lower than WTO commitments to supplement domestic deficient supplies. The problem of Input expense has been solved, domestic livestock sector has continued to resist a reduction of price because a bulk of cheap price meat was imported and whose prices were equal to 2/3 of domestic meat price. Above difficulties has held back development of domestic livestock sector.

The first 10 months of 2008 was evaluated to be a difficult and disadvantageous period for Vietnam livestock. The cold spell at the beginning of the year in Northern provinces caused a reduction in cattle populations. Moreover, diseases and a high increase in feed price (40-60%) made livestock be at a loss. Thus, many breeders stopped raising livestock and large farms were narrowed in size. To stabilize supplies, Government actively reduced meat export tariff to levels lower than WTO commitments to supplement domestic deficient supplies. The problem of input expense has been solved, domestic livestock sector has continued to resist a reduction of price because a bulk of cheap price meat was imported and whose prices were equal to 2/3 of domestic meat price. Above difficulties has held back development of domestic livestock sector.
The late months of 2008 is forecast to be a very difficult period for raisers and consumers. On raisers’ side, while prices of meat and food are likely to reduce, domestic feed price decreases unnoticeably (down 2-10%). Moreover, other input expenses such as labor price, veterinary medicine and bank interest, etc are still high, which makes people unconcerned about raising and reproducing livestock for the upcoming Tet festival - a high time for an increase in demand. For consumers, it is possible for a lack of supplies in late months. This shortage possibly creates a meat and food price fever for 2009 Tet festival because supplies of imported meat are reduced while domestic livestock is unlikely to be well again.

In such a context, analyzing meat consumption in the whole country, especially for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City as well as forecasts on meat and food consumption in the upcoming time will help policy-makers to direct departments in supporting farmers as well as food enterprises for production and operation. To provide latest forecasts on meat and food demand for Tet festival, AgroInfo publishes a report on meat and food consumption: Forecasts on demand for 2009 Tet festival.

Basic information:
- Release date: January 2009

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