Báo cáo Thịt và Thực phẩm: Dự báo nhu cầu dịp Tết 2009 (TA)|Report on meat and food consumption: Forecasts on demand for 2009 Tet festival

Báo cáo Thịt & thực phẩm

Report on meat and food consumption: Forecasts on demand for 2009 Tet festival

The first 10 months of 2008 was evaluated to be a difficult and disadvantageous period for Vietnam livestock. The cold spell at the beginning of the year in Northern provinces caused a reduction in cattle populations. Moreover, diseases and a high increase in feed price (40-60%) made livestock be at a loss. Thus, many breeders stopped raising livestock and large farms were narrowed in size. To stabilize supplies, Government actively reduced meat export tariff to levels lower than WTO commitments to supplement domestic deficient supplies. The problem of input expense has been solved, domestic livestock sector has continued to resist a reduction of price because a bulk of cheap price meat was imported and whose prices were equal to 2/3 of domestic meat price. Above difficulties has held back development of domestic livestock sector.
The late months of 2008 is forecast to be a very difficult period for raisers and consumers. On raisers’ side, while prices of meat and food are likely to reduce, domestic feed price decreases unnoticeably (down 2-10%). Moreover, other input expenses such as labor price, veterinary medicine and bank interest, etc are still high, which makes people unconcerned about raising and reproducing livestock for the upcoming Tet festival - a high time for an increase in demand. For consumers, it is possible for a lack of supplies in late months. This shortage possibly creates a meat and food price fever for 2009 Tet festival because supplies of imported meat are reduced while domestic livestock is unlikely to be well again.
In such a context, analyzing meat consumption in the whole country, especially for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City as well as forecasts on meat and food consumption in the upcoming time will help policy-makers to direct departments in supporting farmers as well as food enterprises for production and operation. To provide latest forecasts on meat and food demand for Tet festival, AgroInfo publishes a report on meat and food consumption: Forecasts on demand for 2009 Tet festival.

Basic Information

Release date:
17/11/2008 for Vietnamese version

5/01/2009 for English version

• Price:
500,000 for Vietnamese version

1,000,000 VND for English version

Form of payment: Account transfer

For further information, kindly contact:

For being consulted about content: Commodity analysis department:
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. MEAT AND FOOD DEMAND FOR TET FESTIVAL AND DAILY

1. Meat and food demand nationwide in the period of 2002-2004-2006

1.1. By regions

1.1.1. Pork

1.1.1.1. Consumption volume

1.1.1.2. Consumption value

1.1.2. Beef

1.1.2.1. Consumption volume

1.1.2.2. Consumption value

1.1.3. Chicken

1.1.3.1. Consumption volume

1.1.3.2. Consumption value

1.2. By residences

1.2.1. Consumption volume

1.2.2. Consumption value

1.3. By income groups

1.3.1. Consumption volume

1.3.2. Consumption value

2. Meat and food demand of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh in the period of 2002-2004-2006

II. FACTORS AFFECTING 2008 CÓNSUMPTION

1. Supply and price

1.1. Domestic livestock industry

1.2. Meat import

1.3. Price evolution

1.3.1. Pork

1.3.2. Beef

1.3.3. Chicken

1.3.4. Processed foods

2. Inflation

3. Epidemics and food safety sanitation

III. INFORMATION ON ENTERPRISES

1. Food production and processing

2. Retail business

IV. CONSUMPTION PROSPECTS

1. Consumption demand: market prospects for the final months and 2009 Tet festival

2. Meat and food supplies in the final months and during 2009 Tet festival

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Per capita meat consumption volume for Tet festival and monthly average across economic regions (kg/person)

Table 2: Pork spending between Tet festival and monthly average by economic regions (1000 VND/person)

Table 3: Beef consumption volume for Tet festival and monthly average (kg/person)

Table 4: Different level between pork and beef consumption for Tet festival and monthly average (time)

Table 5: Beef consumption value between Tet festival and monthly average (1000 VND/person)

Table 6: Volume of per capita chicken consumption between Tet festival and monthly average (kg/person)

Table 7: Chicken consumption value between Tet festival and monthly average (1000 VND/person)

Table 8: Used meat volume for Tet festival by income group (kg/person)

Table 9: Monthly average meat consumption volume by income (kg/person)

Table 10: Meat spending for Tet festival based on income groups (1000 VND/person)

Table 11: Difference in meat expense between Tet festival and monthly average by income (time)

Table 12: Monthly average meat consumption volume by residences in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh (kg/person)

Table 13: Price evolution of live hog in some markets

Table 14: Price evolution of rump pork in some markets

Table 15: Beef price evolution in some major markets

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: An increase rate of meat consumption and population growth in Vietnam in the period of 2002-2008 (%) (Basis=2002)

Figure 2: Per capita monthly average expense (VND)

Figure 3: Structure of per capita monthly average meat spending in 2002, 2004, 2006 (%)

Figure 4: Meat spending for Tet festival and monthly average (VND/person)

Figure 5: Pork spending between Tet festival and monthly average by residences (kg/person)

Figure 6: Volume of beef consumption between Tet festival and monthly average by residences (kg/person)

Figure 7: Used chicken volume between Tet festival and monthly average by residences (kg/person)

Figure 8: Difference in meat consumption volume and expense between Tet festival and monthly average by residences (time)

Figure 9: Difference in meat consumption between Tet festival and monthly average by residential areas (time)

Figure 10: Hanoian’s used meat volume for Tet festival based on residences (kg/person)

Figure 11: Meat consumption volume by residences in Ho Chi Minh (kg/person)

Firgure 12: Pork import from some major markets in the first 8 months of 2008 compared with 2007 (ton)

Figure 13: The volume of chicken and edible by-products after slaughtering poultry imported from some major markets in the first 8 months of 2008 compared with 2007 (ton)

Figure 14: Weekly price evolution of live hog in the first 10 months of 2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 15: Weekly price evolution of rump pork in the first 10 months of 2008 (VND/kg)

Figure 16: Weekly evolution of silverside price in the first 10 months of 2008

Figure 17: Weekly evolution of chicken carcass prices in the first 9 months of 2008

Figure 18: Annual domestic meat consumption (1,000 ton)

Figure 19: Consumption growth rate of meat categories during Tet festivals and CPI (basis= 2002)

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